Technology moves at a dizzying pace, making predictions about the industry nearly impossible. But this doesn’t stop people from having a go – often with hilarious results
1. “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”.
IBM president Thomas Watson, 1943 – Thankfully for IBM, Watson’s prediction was woefully inaccurate. Last year the company brought in revenue of around $100bn selling computer hardware and software.
2. “I predict the internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse”.
Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995 – Metcalfe had promised to “eat his words” if his prediction was wrong. At a conference in 1997, true to his word, he used a food processor to liquefy a copy of the article containing the mistake… and then drank it.
3. “The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys”.
Sir William Preece, chief engineer at the British Post Office – As soon as the price of a messenger boy falls below the latest iPhone, I’ll switch back.
4. “Two years from now, spam will be solved”.
Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, 2004 – I can’t speak for Bill Gates, but I still get the occasional piece of spam.
5. “Everyone’s always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell phone. My answer is, ‘Probably never”.
David Pogue, The New York Times, 2006 – The iPhone came out in 2007, and has done rather well since.
6. “Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night”.
Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox, 1946 – How is television going these days? He was right, in so far as few televisions are made of plywood these days.
7. “There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States”.
T. Craven, FCC Commissioner, 1961 – It does all of the above, plus Google Maps and sat-navs into the bargain.
8 “Apple is already dead”.
Nathan Myhrvold, former CTO of Microsoft – To be fair, it did look iffy there for a while, but since the second coming of Steve Jobs things have gone from strength to strength.
0 Comments: